How Antarctic Climate Science Can Function as ‘Intelligence’ With Substantial Security Outcomes Within and Beyond the Frozen Continent

Antarctica is a critical regulator of the Earth’s climate system, yet significant gaps remain in our understanding of its changing dynamics under climate stress. This briefing note argues that Antarctic climate science should be reframed and utilised as a form of strategic intelligence, vital for global security. As sea ice declines, ocean circulation weakens, and carbon sinks are disrupted, the Antarctic system's degradation threatens to undermine climate models and forecasting, leading to poor risk anticipation globally. Within Antarctica, improved climate intelligence can help conservation-focused states pre-empt and respond to pressures from resource-hungry actors seeking mineral and fisheries access as ice retreats. Beyond the continent, changes in Antarctic systems increasingly affect global processes - contributing to extreme weather, sea level rise, and potential disruptions to oceanic circulation such as AMOC. Enhanced Antarctic climate data would therefore bolster disaster preparedness, strategic foresight, and geopolitical stability. Moreover, it offers a unique opportunity for international cooperation through shared scientific and security interests. This briefing advocates for greater investment in Antarctic research as a climate security priority and outlines how such science can serve as anticipatory intelligence to mitigate cascading risks worldwide.

See full briefing note here.