Red Hot Risk, Ice Cold Response: UK Climate Security Intelligence Blind Spots

Climate change is reshaping the global security landscape. As recognised by UK policy frameworks, including the 2021 Integrated Review and its 2023 Refresh, climate change is a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates conflict, geopolitical tensions, and livelihoods. However, existing approaches in the UK and elsewhere have underappreciated the pace, scale, connectivity, and costs of climate-related risks and failed to integrate data and intelligence across departments. The UK lacks a state-level analytical capability which translates scientific and governmental understanding into strategic and operational foresight.

To remedy this, the establishment of a UK Climate Security Intelligence Centre (CSIC) is proposed here by Louise Selisny, Tim Clack and Richard Nugee. Drawing on analogous capabilities, such as Jordan’s national Climate Security Intelligence Team, the CSIC would provide early warning, integrate climate data with security analysis, and deliver decision advantage. It is proposed that the UK government has a unique opportunity to lead by embedding climate foresight into defence, diplomacy, and development planning while supporting economic growth and regional equity through, for example, sustainable interventions, high-skill green jobs and local resilience hubs.

A CSIC would enhance the UK’s ability to anticipate and manage climate-related crises, protect vulnerable communities, support strategic and operational defence readiness, and uphold international reputation. The authors propose that as climate shocks increasingly affect global and domestic security, establishing a dedicated climate security intelligence capacity is not just headline grabbing policy - it’s a national security necessity.

Full paper here.