The Indus River as a flash point for climate-related security risks involving India and Pakistan

The Indus River Basin is emerging as a critical nexus of climate change, geopolitical tension, and human insecurity. This briefing, written by CCIP’s own George Meddings, examines how intensifying climate impacts - including glacial retreat, erratic monsoons, and extreme hydrological events - are exacerbating transboundary water stress between India and Pakistan. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has halted vital data-sharing and diplomatic mechanisms, deepening Pakistan’s vulnerability amid ongoing water crises. Simultaneously, the basin faces complex challenges -  rising demand, increased disaster risk, internal political polarisation, and regional militarisation.

Climate-related insecurity is compounded by dam construction and upstream-downstream power asymmetries, with India and China advancing hydroelectric projects that provoke concern in downstream Pakistan. The risk of water becoming a geopolitical weapon is rising, particularly in the context of declining agricultural productivity, mass displacement, and growing non-state armed group recruitment. Historical precedents from the Indus Valley Civilisation’s collapse serve as a stark warning of how environmental disruption can precipitate societal decline.

However, this briefing also presents a vision for cooperation - climate-proofing the IWT, enhancing real-time data-sharing, developing a joint climate monitoring centre, and implementing regional early warning systems. Integrated water-energy projects, resilient agricultural practices, and climate-sensitive social protection are also proposed to address root causes of insecurity. By transforming shared climate risk into a foundation for diplomacy, the Indus Basin can shift from flashpoint to frontier for regional collaboration and resilience in a warming world.

See full report here.